Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.079737 0.092214 0.106436 0.123937 0.145019 0.169752 0.201193
2025-11-02 0.060198 0.074785 0.092931 0.117462 0.150218 0.193111 0.254647
2025-11-09 0.046030 0.060616 0.080122 0.108686 0.150434 0.210840 0.307981
2025-11-16 0.038009 0.052830 0.074042 0.107592 0.161223 0.247169 0.403246
2025-11-23 0.031766 0.046339 0.068519 0.106204 0.171828 0.288139 0.527447
2025-11-30 0.027381 0.041793 0.065047 0.107401 0.187724 0.345649 0.717203
2025-12-07 0.023755 0.037778 0.061647 0.108047 0.203574 0.411778 0.974813
2025-12-14 0.020246 0.033336 0.056658 0.104646 0.210960 0.465757 1.253661
2025-12-21 0.016644 0.028136 0.049336 0.094923 0.201954 0.479050 1.438811
2025-12-28 0.014791 0.025791 0.046945 0.094923 0.215938 0.561459 1.951928
2026-01-04 0.013472 0.024229 0.045798 0.097457 0.237902 0.683603 2.810521
2026-01-11 0.012231 0.022615 0.044239 0.098698 0.257585 0.816411 3.993498
2026-01-18 0.011083 0.021052 0.042590 0.099604 0.278300 0.978270 5.811949
2026-01-25 0.009886 0.019202 0.039958 0.097275 0.288415 1.112773 7.957759
2026-02-01 0.008710 0.017226 0.036683 0.092323 0.287801 1.203978 10.205411
2026-02-08 0.008008 0.016194 0.035489 0.093133 0.309602 1.441478 15.515735
2026-02-15 0.007365 0.015200 0.034210 0.093377 0.330173 1.709724 23.749711
2026-02-22 0.006884 0.014511 0.033585 0.095596 0.361515 2.110804 40.061850
2026-03-01 0.006428 0.013817 0.032816 0.097160 0.391906 2.579116 68.814248
2026-03-08 0.005888 0.012845 0.031116 0.094967 0.402972 2.922777 105.485495
2026-03-15 0.005215 0.011461 0.028039 0.086898 0.378408 2.887770 123.313882
2026-03-22 0.004888 0.010913 0.027274 0.087388 0.402879 3.448666 221.819808
2026-03-29 0.004657 0.010580 0.027079 0.090099 0.443673 4.359171 489.077291